May 17, 2012

Brrr! Eastern Nebraska faces Freeze Warnings & Watches tonight

Freezing temperatures are expected across eastern Nebraska tonight, which could cause some major problems for growers of fruits and vegetables — along with thousands of backyard gardeners.

Paul Domoto, a horticulturist, says the amount of damage will depend on the low temperatures.

“If it drops below 28 or to 28, we’re going see some initial damage,” Domoto says. “But if it drops below 25, we’re going to see extensive damage.”

Temperatures are expected to drop into the 20s tonight in northeast Nebraska, where 19 counties are under a Freeze Warning. Another ten counties in southeast Nebraska are under a Freeze Watch where temps may bottom out around 30 degrees.

Fruit growers have been worried about a freeze for weeks, as blossoms arrived about a month early this year. Domoto says grape growers shouldn’t be too worried.

“One of things about grapes, they have primary and secondary buds. So, we may lose the primaries, but the secondary bud will break and grow and depending on the variety, that can be fairly fruitful,” Domoto said.

Learn more about tonight’s watches and warnings at www.weather.gov/oax

 

Experts say spring flood risk for Missouri River basin is normal

Flooding on the Missouri River near Omaha in mid-2011

Unusually dry and warm conditions in March led to below-normal run-off in the Missouri River basin, according to new data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Steven Predmore, with the National Weather Service’s Missouri River basin prediction office, says flood risks are only average this spring. That’s a big change from last year when record flooding hit the waterway and lasted all through the summer months.

“The National Weather Service continues to project a normal risk of springtime flooding for most areas within the Missouri River basin,” Predmore says. “An exception exists in the Dakotas where we are calling for a slightly-lower-than-normal risk of flooding.”

Jody Farhart, chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division for the Corps, said flood storage is right where it should be at this time of year.

“The total volume of water stored in the Missouri River Main Stem Reservoir System is currently 56.9-million acre feet, just 0.1-million acre feet above the base of the annual flood control pool,” Farhat says. “This means that we have 16.2 of the total 16.3-million acre feet of flood control storage available.”

Runoff above Sioux City was 78% of normal through the end of March.

Kevin Stom, who’s also with the Corps’ Water Management Division, says their forecasts indicate a below-normal run-off.

“The April 1 run-off forecast above Sioux City is 23.4-million acre feet or 94% of normal,” Stom says. “This is a decrease from the March 1 forecast due to much lower than normal plains snowpack run-off which normally occurs in March and April. In addition, overall mountain snowpack decreased as a percent of normal. Record high March temperatures occured throughout the basin and precipitation was well below normal.”

Stom says snowpack above Fort Peck Dam was at 97% of normal.

Releases from Gavins Point Dam near Yankton will be increased to just under 29,000 cubic feet per second to support navigation from Sioux City downstream. Peak flows during last summer’s flooding maxed out at just over 160,000 cubic feet per second.

By Jerry Oster, WNAX, Yankton

Despite flood, Cong. Smith says key decisions should remain with Corps

Missouri River flooding last summer near Omaha

In the wake of last year’s record flooding on the Missouri River, some members of Congress are demanding a new management style for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Nebraska Congressman Adrian Smith has been critical of the Corps, but says technical decisions about waterflow should be still be left up to the experts.

“When it comes to members of Congress or engineers to make a decision, I think it needs to be engineers,” Smith says. “Congress layering on another mandate certainly I don’t think addresses the challenges that nature can provide us.”

Smith says while this year has not been nearly as wet as last year, that can change quickly.

“We don’t know where the next rain storm will be, between which dams or above the entire system or even below the bottom dam,” Smith says. “We want to make sure that there’s flexibility throughout our policies.”

Smith says the Corps has to work with Congress on changes to the river’s master manual to allow for the extremes.

“We cannot afford to have this boilerplate approach that in a water-short year would actually complicate matters,” Smith says.

In wet years, too, if there’s a mandated flow rate, he says the water would have to be run through even when there are indications of complications that would result downstream.

By Jerry Oster, WNAX, Yankton

Wheat crop looks good but beware the late freeze!

Nebraska wheat growers are hoping history doesn’t repeat itself this spring.

While the weather has been unseasonably warm, Gage County extension educator Paul Hay recalls a cold snap that hit in May of 1985 which destroyed wheat fields across southeast Nebraska.

“One of the saddest times in the extension I’ve spent here was the year the wheat froze on the 12th of May because it was headed and we lost the crop,” Hay says. “You need to watch those forecasts because we’re headed right to the same potential picture and that’s the scary thing right now.”

Hay says the wheat crop is in great shape in southeast Nebraska thanks to timely rains and mild weather conditions. He also knows that mild weather could change quickly.

“We’re looking good right now, a lot of optimism and with an early crop, a lot of operators could get a double crop in afterwards, if we can get it cut on the 20th of June or so,” Hay says, “We’re sitting for that and hopefully there won’t be any reversal against that.”

Hay says if a freeze does hit in the near future, the amount of damage to the wheat crop will depend on the maturity of the crop.

By Dave Niedfeldt, KWBE, Beatrice

If you’re liking the warm weather, you’ll love the long-range forecast

Forecasters say the mild weather Nebraskans are enjoying should continue for the next couple of weeks.

DTN meteorologist Bryce Anderson says he was astonished over the warm temperatures the Midwest saw during the winter months and now after the first week of spring.

“Everything has been very warm, very mild across the board,” Anderson says. “These temperature departures that we’ve seen are just mind boggling when you’re talking about stations that are running not just 20 degrees above normal, but in some cases, 40 degrees above normal.”

Anderson says farmers in some states in the region are already starting to plant corn.

“We’ve got reports of corn not only having been planted, but already starting to spike and emerge in parts of Illinois,” Anderson says. “There are producers in the western corn belt now that are planning to take a chance on at least parts of their acreage if things continue as they are.”

He says it appears the mild weather will continue into the first part of April.

“As far as what the models are showing over the next couple of weeks, there really isn’t any cold air,” Anderson says. “You might have conditions getting down into the upper 30s for one night but it’s night like we’re dipping into the low 30s or upper 20s or anything like that.”

Anderson says the mild conditions we’re enjoying now may cause some problems for farmers later in the year year, especially when it comes to a lack of soil moisture.

“If it stays on this above-normal temperature track, then what does that do as far as taking out soil moisture reserves and putting crops at stress as we go into the summer?” Anderson says. “It’s going to be a point of observance and it’s going to be a point of concern.”

By Dave Niedfeldt, KWBE, Beatrice