Long-range forecasters say the overall trend of cooler, wetter weather will likely continue for the next several months, with some periods of hot and dry mixed in, followed by what may be a mild winter ahead.
Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center, which is based at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, says the regional climate outlook, going out just eight-to-14 days, shows the rest of July and into August will be on the warm side.
“The eight-to-14 is showing temperatures being above normal during this time,” Fuchs says, “and when you couple that with the precipitation, it does look like after the next seven-day period, it is looking like the potential for drier-than-normal conditions from the Ohio River Valley into the Midwest.”
Fuchs says the trend from late summer into fall looks to be more of what we have seen most of the first half of the year.
“If you look at the probabilities of seeing above-normal precipitation, that starts out in the Southwest and continues into the Central Rockies out onto the Plains and catching part of the Midwest,” Fuchs says. “That’s also associated with temperatures being below normal.”
With a very strong El Nino weather pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean, Fuchs says the winter outlook is trending toward less snow and cold for most of the country’s northern half.
“We’re seeing those warmer-than-normal temperature probabilities staying in place from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains,” he says, “and the below-normal temperature probabilities from the Southern Plains through the Southeast continue as well.”
Fuchs says the El Nino is now trending up and could be one of the strongest ever recorded.
By Jerry Oster, WNAX, Yankton